DEI: Cycle or wave?
The DEI movement is experiencing a backlash. Surprise. Anyone who has done or paid attention to this work for any length of time saw this coming. Indeed, the very predictability of backlash leads many to characterize DEI as cyclical. I see the pattern as something different: regression to the mean.
Regression to the mean is a statistical concept that describes how values tend to return to an average level after an extreme event. If you do well on a test, your next score will likely be closer to your average, even if you study the same amount.
So, how does this apply to DEI? Society’s "mean" is inequity. The events of 2020 pushed us far from that mean; now we're living the pullback toward that baseline. Progress is possible, but status quo is powerful.
It’s not pessimism; it’s probability.
Understanding regression to the mean helps us focus on efforts that are…
Substantive: When we acknowledge the inevitable down that follows any incredible up, we can be real about how far we have—and have not—progressed. In the ups, our energy is best spent prioritizing outcomes over outrage, focused on changing behaviors rather than beliefs.
Sustainable: In an inequitable world, equity itself is disruption. So, it’s better to focus on long-term strategies: We must address the root causes of inequity, not just react to crises.
Strategic: Knowing that regression is likely helps us prepare for and counter it. It’s not pessimism; it’s probability.
So, what do we do?
Move the inequitable mean: Yes, the mean is inequity. Yes, we regress to it. But, to paraphrase Dr. King, the arc of inclusion is long, but it bends toward equity. To adjust the mean, advocate for policies that address root causes and systemic inequity.
Manifest the equitable mean. Celebrating wins is important, but what’s more important is how the win is characterized. Treating it like a prize turns the effort into a White Elephant event where somebody is always looking for a way to take it back. A better strategy? Challenge the narratives that normalize inequity.
Diversity is destiny. By understanding the forces at play, we can navigate the inevitable ebbs and flows and continue pushing towards a more equitable future. The mean will move when we start manifesting a mean that matters.